Based on recentNCAA tournamenttrends, only a few teams are likely true national championship contenders onceMarch Madnessofficially gets underway.
Seven of the last eight national champions were No. 1 seeds, withConnecticutthe lone exception as a No. 4 seed in 2023. The Huskies were also a bit more talented than their seed displayed, especially as they repeated as national champions the following season.
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Moreover, 18 of the last 25 national champions since 2000 have been No. 1 seeds. The last team higher than a No. 4 seed to win the national championship was also UConn in 2014, meaning the Huskies hold both spots as the highest-seeded teams to win a title since 2000.
Three No. 3 seeds have won national titles since 2000, and one No. 2 seed has won during that time.
Suffice to say, if a team dominates the regular season, it's a good predictor of national championship odds. Here's a look at the nine teams that can win a national championship in 2026 based on seeding trends:
Duke
Duke, the No. 1 overall seed inUSA TODAY Sports' bracket projections,has been a wagon this season. Led by true freshman Cameron Boozer, one of the top national player of the year candidates, the Blue Devils finished 29-2 in the regular season with a long list of impressive wins over fellow projected 1-seeds in Michigan and Florida; 2-seed Michigan State; 4-seeds Kansas and Virginia; and 6-seed North Carolina (twice).
Duke ranks No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 5 in adjusted offensive efficiency,per KenPom,and is likely the national championship front runner right now.
Arizona
Arizona is a lock for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament alongside Duke, Michigan and Florida. All the Wildcats did this season was dominate one of the best conferences in college basketball.
Arizona finished the season with a 29-2 record, including a 16-2 mark in Big 12 play. The Wildcats lost back-to-back games to Kansas and Texas Tech in February, but won every other game otherwise, including wins over Iowa State, Kansas, Houston, Alabama, UConn and Florida.
Arizona ranks No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 7 in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. It also ranks No. 15 in strength of schedule.
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Michigan
Another lock for a No. 1 seed, Michigan also dominated the regular season. The Wolverines suffered one loss in Big Ten play, which came to Wisconsin early in the season before they ran the table in the conference, only losing again to Duke in a neutral site game in February.
Michigan has the tools to win a national title and forms a big three alongside Duke and Arizona as the top contenders for the national title, with Florida likely right behind.
Florida
Defending national champion Florida was 9-5 at one point this season after dropping its SEC opener to Missouri. That followed nonconference losses to UConn, Duke, Arizona and TCU. But then something clicked for the Gators, and they went on to win 16 of their last 17 games to end the regular season, looking like one of the top national title contenders once again.
Led by a trio of returners from last season's national championship team in Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu, Florida boasts one of the strongest frontcourts in college basketball. The Gators are the current front runners to earn the last No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, which puts them easily in national title contention, especially with their run to end the regular season.
Florida ranks fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, which coincidentally is only behind the three teams ahead of it on this list.
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UConn
UConn has proven capable in the past of winning a national championship from a variety of different seeding spots in the NCAA tournament. The Huskies are shaping up to be a No. 2 seed in 2026, though, putting them near the very top of national title contenders.
UConn's upset loss to Marquette to end the regular season might have cost its chance at a No. 1 seed, but coach Dan Hurley's squad has the potential to win the school's third title in four seasons. The Huskies lack a go-to scorer, but have a trio of veterans in Solo Ball, Tarris Reed Jr. and Alex Karaban, along with projected NBA lottery pick Braylon Mullins and Georgia transfer Silas Demary Jr. that makes one of the best starting lineups in college basketball.
UConn was a No. 8 seed last season and still nearly took down eventual national champion Florida in the second round of March Madness.
Michigan State
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo has one of his better squads in recent years, led by standout guard Jeremy Fears Jr., who leads the Big Ten in assists per game (9.1) this season.
The Spartans last won a national title in 2000, although they were runners-up in 2009. They've also reached three Final Fours since 2010. Michigan State is projected as a No. 2 seed in USA TODAY Sports' projections.
Houston
Houston returned three starters from its runners-up squad a season ago, and replaced the players it lost with a pair of five-star true freshman, including Kingston Flemings, a projected top-five pick in the upcoming NBA draft.
Flemings raised the Cougars' offensive ceiling this season, pacing the team with 16.5 points and 6.4 assists per game. They also have their typical strong defense, which ranks No. 6 nationally, per KenPom.
Coach Kelvin Sampson is one of the best coaches to never win a national title, and he has led Houston agonizingly close in recent years. Maybe the Cougars get over the hump in 2026 as a projected No. 2 seed, per USA TODAY Sports.
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Gonzaga
Three No. 3 seeds have won the national championship since 2003, and Gonzaga is projected to be on the No. 3 line in 2026, per USA TODAY Sports. The Bulldogs have one of the best frontcourts in college basketball with Graham Ike and Braden Huff, and will be a tough out if they can get strong play from their backcourt or get hot from 3-point range.
Gonzaga has one of the best coaches in the sport in Mark Few and have been runners-up for the national championship in both 2017 and 2021. It also has the defense to make a run, which ranks ninth, per KenPom.
Kansas
Never count out the Jayhawks and coach Bill Self in March Madness, especially with one of the best scorers in college basketball on their roster.
True freshman Darryn Peterson has been healthy as of late, playing 29 or more minutes in all five of Kansas' final games of the regular season. His availability raises Kansas' ceiling tremendously in the NCAA tournament.
Kansas also has a strong defense, led by Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Flory Bidunga. Kansas, also led by veteran guards Tre White and Melvin Council Jr., has a team capable of winning a national championship when Peterson is at his best.
Kansas is projected to be a No. 4 seed by USA TODAY Sports, and one No. 4 seed has won a national title since 2000 (UConn in 2023).
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:March Madness predictions: One of these teams will win NCAA Tournament